APATHY, PROTESTS, AND PERCEPTIONS

To what extent will loyalty and gratitude to the ruling party outweigh disillusionment and apathy in the forthcoming election?

As South Africa heads towards national and provincial elections, the ruling party — the African National Congress (ANC) — has to contend not only with other political parties but also with the apathy and disillusionment displayed by a large number of people in the country.

Apathy is showing itself through the overall increase in the proportion of eligible voters who did not vote at all in past elections, and disillusionment through the sharp increase in the number of ‘service delivery’ protests around the country. While support for the ANC has never been below 60% since the fi rst national elections in 1994, the proportion of eligible voters who did not vote has risen from 14% to 41% in the 2009 elections. This share is even higher in local elections, where voter apathy has hovered around 60%. The increase in the number of major ‘service delivery’ protests, from 10 in 2004 to 155 in 2013, completes the picture.

The South African Police Service reported a 93% increase in the number of incidents of public violence, from 974 cases in 2004/05 to1 882 in 2012/13. The increase may refl ect a ‘crisis of rising expectations’ as delivery falls short of the high expectations created. Faced with an official unemployment rate of almost 26%, many South Africans struggle to join the formal economy, thus increasing their frustration with what
they perceive to be the State’s slow delivery.

Despite the disillusionment, many may still be loyal to the ANC given the roll-out of services by the State. In 2012 some 56% of learners attended no-fee schools and the number of social grant beneficiaries increased from 2.4 million in 1996/97 to over 16 million in 2013/14. In addition, 47% of households receive free water and 28% receive free electricity.

With declining confi dence in state institutions, rife corruption and the lack of accountability among public officials, yet an increase in state provision of services, voters’ decisions at the polls are now more diffi cult
to predict than in previous elections. Another unknown factor is whether disillusionment at local level will affect national voting patterns.

Courtesy of South African Institute of Race Relations

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